"Holy Toledo!"

September 9, 2007

Billy’s NFL Pointspread Winners: Week #1

Filed under: NFL — Bill @ 12:59 am

Picking NFL games against the pointspread is an art that very few have mastered successfully over the years. Most who try to do it professionally end up selling encyclopedias. Sportsbooks aren’t built to lose money, and they usually don’t. That said we all do our best to beat them anyway, it’s what we do.

Public opinion makes huge money for Vegas sportsbooks. The pointspread is the great equalizer. How do you beat the system? Now there’s a loaded question that will take years to explain.

Suffice it to say one needs to choose their spots very carefully, money management is important, as well as not being afraid to go against the tide. This season I will give you my best educated opinion, just remember you get what you pay for. I do, however, have some experience (over 25 years) at this game, and I trust that over the course of a season I can come out on top (but then so does every average Joe and based on the size of most casinos the outlook is against us). With all those disclaimers out of the way, let’s win some money…

Week #1:

Beating the NFL line in week #1 is partially about luck and a lot about preseason homework, so I’m not going to go out on any limb here. I will give you a few games that have the best chance of winning.

Billy’s Week #1 Picks

– Take the St.Louis Rams -1 vs the Carolina Panthers for 100 units (trust me, it’s “the Hanson factor”)

– Take Houston -3 vs. Kansas City for 100 units (KC has a real shot at being horrible this year)

– Take Detroit +2.5 at Oakland for 100 units (until we see that the Raiders offense can actually score we will go against them)

I’m tempted to take Philly -3 at Green Bay, & Seattle -6 vs Tampa Bay, but like I said, let’s go easy in week #1.

Curb your enthusiasm. There will be some big plays on Monday Night so go easy, and be sure to check back for my Monday Night picks.

It’s a long season. don’t be blowing your wad on the first weekend.

Just Win Baby!

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