"Holy Toledo!"

October 8, 2009

Week 5 Warning To The Sports Gambler

Filed under: NFL — Bill @ 10:30 am

Beware of the big numbers!

Of the 14 NFL games scheduled for this weekend there is an abnormal number of large pointspreads.  If you are one of the millions who occasionally puts a wager on a game this article is a must read for you.  Risk takers beware, Las Vegas has set some traps for you, traps that are sure to benefit the house.

There are 14 games scheduled but only 13 lines exist.  Due to the unknown QB status in Seattle there is no line on the Jaguars at Seahawks game as of this moment.  Of the 13 games:

–      2 games have lines of more than 14 points

–      4 games have lines of 10 pts. or more

–      6 games have lines of more than 7 points

–      6 games have road favorites

Might it just be a coincidence that all the good teams are playing all the bad teams?  Perhaps, but still there are too many road teams favored, and too many big spreads.

It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Raiders could compete with the Giants in New York.  The great equalized is the 16 points you would be getting should you take Oakland.

Popular teams like Dallas & Pittsburgh are traveling this week, yet still they are expected to win their games by a large margin.  Experience tells us winning on the road in the NFL isn’t that simple.

Then there’s the scenario that the Minnesota Vikings are facing.  After their emotional victory Monday night vs. the Packers the Purple Gang will have to deal with a short practice week, traveling to another city, & the obvious letdown factor.  Granted they are playing arguable the NFL’s worst team in the St. Louis Rams, but I still wouldn’t be comfortable laying more than 10 pts on this game.  It reeks of a trap.

An undefeated Broncos team is playing in the thin air at home on Sunday and yet they aren’t favored.  Why?  They are hosting the popular New England Patriots & Tom Brady.  Recent history has shown that the referees tend to help out the Pats, but again I wouldn’t be too confident putting my chips down on the favored Patriots.

In both Sunday & Monday night games the home team is getting the points.  Coincidentally both home underdogs were playoff teams last season.  Beware of the traps set in Tennessee & Miami.

Over the years I have learned that beating the point spread is not as easy as it appears.  I don’t condone gambling on sports, no matter how much fun it is when you win.  The only rule I have about betting on the NFL is: There is a reason those casinos in Las Vegas are so spectacular, they are paid for with the gambler’s money.

With that disclaimer out of the way I know that many of you will plunk down your hard earned green hoping to make some quick ca-ching.  Be careful, this might not be the weekend to go hog wild!

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2 Comments »

  1. Well here is the results of this Sunday’s big pointspread games that I discussed.

    – 2 games have lines of more than 14 pts. – Both the NY Giants & Philadelphia Eagles covered their huge spread rather easily.

    – 4 games have lines of 10 pts. or more – Big favorites covered 3 out of 4, winners were NYG, Philly, & Minnesota, the lone loser vs. the spread was Pittsburgh.

    – 6 games have lines of more than 7 pts. – A split, 3 winners NYG, Philly, & Minn. & 3 losers Pitt, Dallas, & Baltimore. This result is what I expected.

    – 6 games have road favorites – 2 wins by road favorites Minn. & Indy, 3 losses Pitts, Dallas, & New England & 1 game to be played tonight.

    Winning on the road in the NFL isn’t easy, then add in the task of having to cover a point spread and the job becomes even more difficult.

    Beating the spread is never easy!

    Comment by Bill — October 12, 2009 @ 10:56 am

  2. Another road favorite falls on Monday night (Miami over the NT Jets) giving the R/F’s a 2-4 record this weekend.

    Comment by Bill — October 13, 2009 @ 6:18 am


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